蘑菇AV

Retail ended 2024 on a high note as mobile shopping drove ecommerce sales and stores staged a comeback. Will the 2025 holiday season be as fruitful?

The news: Paze notched a major partnership with Worldpay to expand its merchant network, per a press release. Our take: Groundwork has been set for Paze to take off. We predicted that Paze would make significant gains in 2025, and this partnership will help Paze establish its online presence and customer familiarity for strong back-to-school and holiday shopping spend.

Record holiday sales helped retailers, but purchasing patterns across income groups diverged starkly. Middle- and lower-income consumers grew more selective, carefully weighing where and when to spend amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, higher-income shoppers continued to spend freely.

Planning for the holidays may be harder this year as tariffs cast a shadow over both consumers and retailers. 鈥淎s of right now, we鈥檙e seeing a lot of unusual consumer behavior that鈥檚 likely to persist as long as tariff uncertainty persists,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves, author of our 鈥淯S Holiday 2024 Recap and 2025 Preview鈥� report. Still, there are steps retailers can take to prepare. Here are three key strategies to help navigate a challenging holiday season.

The growing trade war could dim America鈥檚 birthday and beyond: With flags and fireworks largely produced in China, July Fourth may be quieter鈥攁nd holiday gifts scarcer.

Asia-Pacific鈥檚 many holiday and seasonal shopping events are hugely popular for finding deals. Traditionally Western and China-originated events are also gaining ground in the region as the consumption culture expands.

Department stores face an uphill battle as discounters, online retailers take share: Our Industry KPIs show foot traffic declined during the holiday season, emphasizing the sector鈥檚 challenges.

Refined luxury thrived during the holidays: Shoppers splurged on timeless pieces from Coach and Ralph Lauren but held back on bolder, flashier styles from Versace and Michael Kors.

With the holiday season in the rearview mirror, our analysts are already looking ahead to what the rest of this year鈥攊ncluding the 2025 holiday season鈥攚ill look like. This year will be defined by unpredictability, as President Trump begins his second term during a time of mixed consumer sentiments. Here are four trends our analysts expect will continue in 2025.

Adidas turned its business around in 2024: The sportswear company ended the year on a high as holiday shoppers clamored for its sneakers.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how the election influenced consumers' shopping habits, why returns spiked, and some way too early predictions for the 2025 holiday season. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Senior Analyst Zak Stambor and Analyst Rachel Wolff.

Shoppers were willing and able to spend this holiday season: Even as consumers focused on value, sales rose 3.8% YoY from November 1 to December 24.

A new four-day format for Amazon鈥檚 tentpole event will shake up the playing field.

The news: Amazon announced its Prime Day event will run from July 8 at 12:01 a.m. PDT through July 11, starting eight days earlier than last year and lasting twice as long as previous events. Our take: Amazon recognizes that while consumers have grown more selective about when and where they spend, many will still jump at the chance to save if they find compelling offers. By extending Prime Day鈥檚 duration, adding tech-driven shopping tools, and broadening its footprint across countries and third-party sites, Amazon is turning the event into an inescapable, large-scale retail moment. Even in a margin-squeezed environment, the visibility and sales potential of Prime Day may be too significant for sellers to pass up.

The trend: A growing parade of retailers are front-loading July promotions to capture sales before the start of Amazon鈥檚 Prime Day event, which will run from July 8 at 12:01am PDT through July 11. Our take: There's a good reason that more retailers are joining Walmart and Target in attempting to get a head start on Prime Day. Amazon typically garners an outsized share of sales during its marquee event; we expect Amazon will account for 75% of US ecommerce sales during Prime Day this year.

The trend: Summer retail sales are starting earlier and stretching longer than ever. Our take: Retailers aren鈥檛 just chasing summer sales鈥攖hey鈥檙e building revenue engines that integrate ecommerce, loyalty programs, and retail media into a more durable flywheel. By making sales events exclusive to members or offering perks like early access to deals, they鈥檙e encouraging sign-ups, deepening engagement, and boosting long-term customer value. The longer promotional windows give retailers more time to drive discretionary spending, alleviate fulfillment bottlenecks, and monetize digital traffic through advertising. That鈥檚 especially critical this year, as economic uncertainty prompts more consumers to pull back on nonessential purchases.

Over half (54%) of US holiday shoppers expect to give clothing or accessories as gifts this year, the most popular gift category, according to a November 2024 survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) conducted by Prosper Insights and Analytics.

Amazon sellers rethink Prime Day participation: With tariffs wreaking havoc on their profits and ability to plan, merchants expect to reduce discounts or skip this year鈥檚 sale entirely.