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The news: Streaming has officially surpassed pay TV in the US, with 50.4% of households no longer subscribing to cable or satellite, per our forecast. But streaming’s ad experience still has work to do. Hub Research finds two-thirds of viewers prefer live TV ad breaks over those in on-demand streaming, and Gen Z remains the least likely to adopt ad-supported tiers. Our take: Streaming isn’t a free pass to interrupt. Gen Z demands relevance, brevity, and control—meaning streaming platforms must reengineer how, when, and where they serve ads. The format must evolve if AVOD is to survive the next wave of viewer expectations.

The trend: Gen Z is opting out of both traditional pay TV and ad-supported streaming tiers, signaling deeper changes in viewing behavior. Just 42% of Gen Z subscribers use ad-supported SVOD, while less than half of all US households now maintain a pay TV subscription. Our take: Streaming’s future depends on reaching the next generation, but current models—especially ad-supported tiers—aren’t meeting Gen Z where they are. With only 1.3 hours of streaming and 0.8 hours of traditional TV per day, Gen Z prefers social video, gaming, and music. To stay relevant, platforms must prioritize native formats, interactivity, and creator integration over legacy ad models.

OTT video—including YouTube, subscription OTT, AVOD, and free ad-supported streaming TV—is extremely popular in nearly all forms. But traditional pay TV continues to reach new lows.

The digital pay TV surge is petering out, and households with no pay TV will now be the majority. Digital pay TV briefly forestalled pay TV’s terminal decline, but the inevitable is now here. The total number of traditional pay TV households fell behind the total number of cord-cutter and cord-never households back in 2022.

To stem losses, digital pay TV increased prices, which put their subscription fees on par with traditional cable. And those price increases curbed user growth. In 2025, just 36.7% of viewers who have withdrawn from traditional TV since 2015 will have switched to digital pay TV. Click here to view our full forecasts for US digital pay TV and US pay TV households and viewers.

In the US, 77% of TV-owning households had a smart TV as of Q1 2023, according to Hub Research. Connected TVs, which include smart TVs, streaming sticks, and other devices, will be used in 115.1 million households next year, more than double the number of traditional pay TV households, according to our forecast.

Nexstar is acquiring Tegna in a $6.2 billion deal that would expand its reach to 265 stations and 39% of US TV households, pending FCC approval. CEO Perry Sook says the merger is essential for competing with Big Tech, while critics warn it could weaken local journalism. The timing comes as regulators signal openness to loosening ownership caps. Local TV ad spending is projected at $17.27 billion in 2025, with broadcast accounting for most of it, but growth lags digital channels. Nexstar is betting that consolidation and scale will help protect broadcast revenue against mounting digital competition.