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Turbulence in trade relations is changing how China鈥檚 ecommerce platforms do business in the US, with spillover effects on US retail and advertising.

The retail outlook for 2025 is worse than previously anticipated. However, many smaller emerging markets are still in line for strong years, and ecommerce continues to claw share from traditional retail.

Retailers and brands are racing to deploy AI across the shopping journey, but trust, quality, and execution will define who wins.

Amazon's sales share will continue to grow in key product categories. But food and beverage remains a rare weak spot for the ecommerce giant.

China is a global leader in online shopping, with high digital buyer and retail ecommerce penetration. Shoppers are comfortable buying luxury goods online and embracing livestreaming commerce.

The news: Chases unveiled 鈥淭he Shops at Chase,鈥� an integrated shopping and promotion platform for Chase Freedom, Sapphire, and Ink cardholders. Our take: Being able to convert Chase rewards into material purchases is a draw. However, retraining Chase cardholders to make purchases at The Shops instead of starting their product search with Google or Amazon will be an uphill battle.

Back-to-school spending is steady in 2025, but shopper behavior is split. Parents are prioritizing tech and clothing鈥攜et these are also the first to be cut when budgets tighten. Consumers are shopping earlier, seeking deals, and using AI to keep costs down. With shopping habits divided by generation and income, retailers must stay flexible, personalize offers, optimize for AI, and create seamless cross-channel experiences.

The market will return to growth in 2025, but retailers face ongoing disruption from ultra-fast-fashion players and TikTok Shop.

Online fashion sales are stable and growing slowly, but they lag wider ecommerce. Consumers are concerned about sustainability, but price is a bigger priority.

In this report, we explore the world鈥檚 top region for retail and ecommerce, Asia-Pacific. Read on for a closer look at the markets in China, India, the Philippines, and more.

The news: US shopper interest in generative AI (genAI) assistants has spiked 223% between 2023 and 2025, per Chain Store Age. 69% of US consumers surveyed by CouponFollow have used AI assistants for shopping. Our take: Retail AI strategies must match their audiences. Those geared toward younger consumers should highlight AI use and innovation and even let AI guide purchases. For older consumers, focus on AI to inform, not take control.

The insight: Younger consumers are opting out of human interaction when they shop. Our take: While younger consumers tend to adopt new behaviors faster, they鈥檙e also driving the direction of retail innovation. Retailers looking to stay competitive should prioritize the tech-driven, convenience-first features these shoppers now see as table stakes.

The news: Consumers increasingly trust shopping suggestions from AI, even more than product suggestions from content creators, positioning the technology as a trusted and personalized guide rather than a back-end tool. 27% of US consumers trust AI shopping recommendations, per Walmart鈥檚 Retail Rewired Report, compared with 24% who trust suggestions from social media influencers. Our take: AI retail tools are most likely to succeed if they offer both speed and a sense of user control. Retailers should let users set spending caps and offer options to pause or customize recommendations to help AI agents feel more like a trusted assistant than a pushy salesperson.

The insight: Gen Z consumers are starting their purchase journeys more often on Google properties, including YouTube and Gemini, according to a Business Insider report citing Morgan Stanley data. Our take: Google is doing a good job of leveraging the popularity of YouTube and increasing interest in genAI-powered shopping tools to win over younger shoppers and establish itself as the first port of call in their customer journeys.

TikTok Shop has emerged for many brands as a pivotal marketplace for discovery and sales. Some 50% of US consumers take product recommendation suggestions from influencers on TikTok Shop, according to February 2024 data from PartnerCentric.

The insight: Walmart sees a (near) future where customers will shop directly from their smart TVs鈥攑referably one powered by Vizio, which the retailer purchased for $2.3 billion last year. Our take: Shoppers are gradually becoming more comfortable with the concept of shoppable TV. Whether those occasional behaviors become habit will depend on platforms鈥� ability to offer ads that are personalized and relevant. That puts Walmart at an advantage, given its troves of first-party data鈥攁lthough it faces tough competition from the likes of Amazon and Roku.

24% of shoppers have used generative AI (genAI) in shopping experiences, while 35% are aware of the use of genAI in shopping and plan to use it in the future, per November 2024 Capgemi data.