蘑菇AV

In the last of five reports in our 鈥淧ayments Ecosystem鈥� collection, we look at what鈥檚 influencing retail sales growth across in-store, online, and social commerce channels鈥攁nd what it means for payment providers.

TikTok is driving social commerce sales and buyer growth: The platform鈥檚 popularity and influence with Gen Zers contributed to its 2024 successes. We look at how that could change in 2025.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

The news: Pinterest will host high-performing influencer content posted on affiliate shopping platform LTK, automatically bringing popular images from the platform to Pinterest, according to The Verge. Pinterest also hired Chip Jessopp, former Amazon director of global accounts and ad tech sales, as head of programmatic, per Digiday. Jessopp will help Pinterest create new demand channels while scaling its programmatic abilities. Our take: Pinterest鈥檚 moves could better position it as a legitimate competitor in digital advertising and a promising growth area for influencers and marketers鈥攇iving the platform more legs against social commerce giants like Meta and TikTok.

Social commerce is gaining momentum in the UK鈥攚ith sales set to double by 2028鈥攁s major brands join TikTok and as more people shop on social platforms.

59% of US shoppers are most influenced by honest creator reviews that showcase the pros and cons of a product, according to a September 2024 survey by Bazaarvoice and Savanta.

Shoppers worldwide are flocking to online marketplaces and social commerce for convenience, variety, and competitive pricing. While price remains key, brand trust is becoming a major factor in certain markets. As these platforms drive discovery and sales, brands must adapt to stay competitive. Here are three ways digital shopping habits are evolving among consumers worldwide.

TikTok Shop鈥檚 sales soared 153% in January: The video app鈥檚 social commerce arm is eating into Shein鈥檚 market share, adding to the hurdles facing the fast fashion company.

We expect social commerce sales in the US to reach $101.38 billion this year, driven by existing buyers increasing their spending. While social commerce plays a smaller role in holiday shopping, it's popular among Gen Z, who are more likely to make purchases influenced by creators. TikTok and Facebook are the top platforms, with apparel brands poised to benefit the most.

US retail social commerce sales.

But social commerce sales will continue to grow in the double digits each of those years. Growth will be driven specifically by Amazon鈥檚 investments in shoppable media across social platforms. Click here to view the full forecast for US social commerce sales.

TikTok Shop has emerged for many brands as a pivotal marketplace for discovery and sales. Some 50% of US consumers take product recommendation suggestions from influencers on TikTok Shop, according to February 2024 data from PartnerCentric.

US social commerce sales will surpass $100 billion in 2026, 蘑菇AV forecasts, presenting a clear opportunity for affiliate partnerships in influencer marketing. 鈥淏rands can now say 鈥榃e put out this budget and we鈥檙e going to be getting this many clicks,鈥欌�� he said. 鈥淓specially in the current market with impending tariffs and downward pressure on brands, that鈥檚 becoming even more important.鈥�.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

US annual social commerce sales per buyer will nearly double from $627.8 in 2023 to $1,223.7 in 2027, according to our forecast.

Social commerce sales are continuing to rise steadily, reaching $82.82 billion in the US next year, per our forecast. But it鈥檚 getting harder to convert new buyers. Here鈥檚 how retailers can encourage more social media purchases and boost their social commerce sales.

TikTok鈥檚 latest strategy to boost social commerce sales relies on AI: The social platform is testing a feature that automatically links users to TikTok Shop without creator input.