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Delinquency fears hit the highest since 2020. We look at how issuers can tailor their offerings for a new era of uncertainty.

The era of tariff-driven trade uncertainty is far from over: A flurry of legal decisions have thrown the administration鈥檚 trade policies into limbo, even as many duties remain firmly in place.

50% of US adults are likely to cut back on spending at fast food restaurants if tariffs lead to higher prices, according to a February 2025 CivicScience survey.

Appealing to consumers鈥� desire for flexibility will become only more important in this era of uncertainty. Insurers will now need to evolve beyond their longtime value proposition of permanence and predictability. Rapidly changing employment and lifestyle trends could suppress life insurance demand. Rising unemployment will shrink the pool of consumers who can receive life insurance as a benefit.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss the challenges the credit card industry is looking at over the next year. 鈥� In our 鈥淗eadlines鈥� segment, we focus on an Insider Intelligence article published at the end of August about Macy鈥檚 private label credit card sales and consider if it鈥檚 a harbinger of problems in the credit card industry overall. 鈥� In 鈥淪tory by Numbers,鈥� we center the conversation on what will happen to consumer credit card spending if鈥攐r when鈥攖here鈥檚 a recession. 鈥� And in 鈥淔or Argument鈥檚 Sake,鈥� we take up sides to discuss whether there will or will not be a recession, which is a critical issue for the credit card industry. Tune in to the discussion with host Rob Rubin and our analyst David Morris.

In the first 100 days of his second term, President Trump has reshaped business strategy across retail, tech, healthcare, and media. Here鈥檚 how tariffs, regulation, and market volatility are forcing brands to rethink spend, growth, and planning.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes鈥攏ot impressions鈥攚ill shape the next era.

Tariffs will upend the status quo: Retailers need to brace themselves for a new era of protectionist trade policies that drive up costs and eat into consumers鈥� spending power.

Netflix House shows the power of brand marketing: The streamer鈥檚 retail play capitalizes on cheap real estate and consumer demand for experiences.

Some may find it easier in this new era of economic uncertainty to capitulate to conservative interests to avoid messy, time- and resource-consuming battles with investors. But doing so could cause them to alienate an important consumer cohort, possibly permanently鈥攚hich could make companies think twice about abandoning DEI.

Consumers鈥� value focus is an expansion opportunity for Costco, BJ鈥檚: The two plan to open dozens of stores to capitalize on demand for warehouse retailers.

Brand loyalty membership is rebounding in the UK as shoppers turn to loyalty programs for savings. Supermarkets are driving innovation, but there is space for brands and retailers of all sizes to boost revenues and forge stronger customer connections.

he news: At WWDC 2025, Apple announced its upcoming macOS 26 Tahoe, marking the final operating system supporting Intel-based Macs and the end of a computing era. Apple鈥檚 transition will accelerate replacement cycles for millions of business users and marketing technology stacks. ur take: The shift will require a massive reset for Apple-reliant companies. They will need comprehensive technology audits across devices and software to weed out unsupported tools. Organizations delaying transitions, particularly for models that have already lost support, risk security vulnerabilities and performance limitations, affecting campaign execution and creative production timelines.

The news: Lululemon is suing Costco for selling dupes. In a lawsuit filed June 25, the athleisure brand accuses the wholesale giant of infringing on its design patents by selling knockoff sweatshirts, jackets, and other activewear. Lululemon seeks an immediate halt to sales of the disputed products and unspecified monetary damages. Our take: For nearly as long as there have been name brands, there have been knockoffs. But the rise of dupe culture on TikTok鈥攃ombined with increasingly cost-conscious consumers looking鈥攊s pushing more shoppers toward cheaper alternatives and more brands to the brink. It's become a growing headache for companies like Est茅e Lauder, which have struggled as buyers opt for low-priced lookalikes. Lululemon鈥檚 lawsuit marks a significant escalation in the brand鈥檚 efforts to protect its designs. If it succeeds, it could set a precedent鈥攁nd signal that the era of unchecked dupes may be nearing a turning point.

The news: Meta is in talks to invest upwards of $10 billion in Scale AI, a data labeling startup. The deal would be Meta鈥檚 biggest ever external AI investment and could help it position its Llama large language model (LLM) as an industry standard, per Bloomberg. Scale AI has already partnered with Meta to develop Defense Llama, an LLM designed for military use that鈥檚 built on Llama 3, and also works with Meta competitors like Microsoft and OpenAI. Our take: Meta鈥檚 massive investment could draw antitrust scrutiny in an era of acqui-hires. The outcome of active probes in Big Tech partnerships could influence regulatory action, especially if this investment contains any exclusivity that limits model training resources for other companies.

The news: OpenAI finalized a deal with Google Cloud to supplement its Microsoft Azure infrastructure, per Reuters. The deal addresses OpenAI鈥檚 growing compute needs as its annual revenues hit $10 billion, up from $5.5 billion in December. OpenAI鈥檚 ChatGPT and Google Gemini are the biggest rivals in the AI industry. The cloud deal effectively ends Microsoft鈥檚 exclusivity as ChatGPT鈥檚 cloud provider and is likely another indicator that the two companies are growing apart. Our take: The OpenAI-Google Cloud alliance signals a new era of pragmatic AI partnerships and the importance of diversified cloud strategies to support the explosion in AI usage.

DoorDash is strengthening its media network through new ad products and the acquisition of tech company Symbiosys, aiming to help brands reach consumers both on and off its platform.

layers browse, click, and buy real merch inside their favorite games, ushering in a new era of immersive ecommerce.

Latin America鈥檚 digital revolution is marching full steam ahead, with consumers spending more than a third of their day online. As social commerce and retail media propel the region鈥檚 digital economy to new heights, the runway for growth remains long.鈥�

The news: Auto parts maker Marelli filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, making it one of the first high-profile casualties of the Trump administration鈥檚 tariffs. Our take: Not all of Marelli鈥檚 problems can be blamed on tariffs. But tariffs and uncertainty have a way of magnifying the cracks in a company鈥檚 business鈥攃racks that will become harder to paper over the longer the Trump administration sticks to its hardline tariff policies.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

CTV ad spending has seen double-digit growth in recent years, but tariffs and economic uncertainty could lead to a flat 2025.

Amid dizzying policy unpredictability and a grab bag of unpleasant economic possibilities, precise ad spend forecasting is challenging. A scenarios-based approach can help clarify potential outcomes.