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Turbulence in trade relations is changing how China鈥檚 ecommerce platforms do business in the US, with spillover effects on US retail and advertising.

Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

US social ad spend will grow YoY in 2025, even as platforms grapple with tariff-related budget cuts from industries that spend heavily on social channels, like CPG and retail.

Total time spent with media per day in the US is no longer growing meaningfully, but there will still be significant churn between devices, activities, and platforms as consumers choose how to spend their time.

The number of social network users in the US will tick up 1.7% YoY this year, while adult users will see almost 2% growth. But time spent on social networks among adult users will peak this year, meaning the battle for engagement is on.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

TikTok will see healthy user growth this year in the US, even as its future remains unclear. User time spent on the app is falling YoY, but it still leads other social networks. However, it鈥檚 facing more competition from Instagram and YouTube.

Search ad spending will not be immune to the economic upheaval caused by the US tariff regime. But it will be less susceptible than other spending areas.

The news: Shein鈥檚 and Temu鈥檚 influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers鈥� loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

The news: China is outpacing the US in retail media鈥檚 global rise, with nearly half of its digital ad spending now flowing through retail platforms. While Amazon still leads globally, its growth is slowing鈥攅xpected to rise just 18.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, players like Uber Eats, Meijer, and Albertsons are growing ad revenues at triple-digit rates. Our take: Retail media is becoming more fragmented and competitive. Success now requires portfolio diversification, especially as new channels鈥攍ike last-mile delivery and in-store signage鈥攇ain momentum. What began as an Amazon-centric, US-led trend is now a worldwide shift reshaping how consumers discover, consider, and buy.

The trend: Food manufacturers are pledging to remove artificial dyes from their products amid pressure from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement. Kraft Heinz said it would phase out artificial coloring in products sold in the US by 2027. General Mills quickly followed, announcing that it would eliminate artificial dyes across its full US portfolio by 2027, and remove them from all cereals and foods served in K-12 schools by next summer. Both Nestl茅 and Conagra are joining the party. Nestl茅 pledged to 鈥渇ully eliminate [food, drug, and cosmetic dye] colors in its US food and beverage portfolio by mid-2026,鈥� and Conagra will stop using such dyes in its frozen foods by year-end, and in all products by the end of 2027. Our take: For most companies, removing artificial dyes from their product lineups is a fairly easy lift, as many have already done so in Europe. It鈥檚 also increasingly a necessary move to prevent private labels from encroaching further on their turf, as more retailers launch 鈥渇ree from鈥� lines and pledge to remove ingredients like aspartame and high-fructose corn syrup from their store brands.

With origins in performance advertising and a focus on efficiency, retail media is likely to remain resilient, even amid an economic upheaval exacerbated by US tariffs. However, impacts won鈥檛 be evenly felt, leaving some players better positioned to withstand headwinds.

The news: US adults are increasingly dependent on digital platforms for news, with social media and video overtaking traditional news outlets for the first time. 54% of US adults get their news from social media, per the Reuters Institute鈥檚 2025 Digital News Report, compared with 50% from TV news and 48% from news websites and apps. Our take: Linear platforms could offer personalized news digests and mobile- and social- friendly content to reengage younger users, while advertisers should diversify their campaigns across social media platforms to follow fragmented user engagement.

The situation: The escalating US-Iran conflict threatens to unleash fresh headwinds for the retail industry, which is already under pressure from the Trump administration鈥檚 shifting trade policies. Our take: Uncertainty has loomed over the industry all year, making it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan ahead with the Trump administration鈥檚 shifting trade policies. Case in point: The 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, and there鈥檚 little clarity as to whether it will be extended or if the sweeping levies will take effect. The escalating US鈥揑ran conflict only adds to the volatility, compounding the pressure on retailers. Together, these factors make it increasingly likely that the operating environment will remain murky for the remainder of the year.

The news: China鈥檚 coffee giants are making their way to the US in the hopes of unlocking a lucrative market to offset pressures back home. Our take: Luckin鈥檚 and Cotti鈥檚 US launches are a problem for Starbucks, which is already struggling to compete with the companies in China and having a hard time winning over customers at home. Unfortunately for Starbucks, many of the moves it鈥檚 making鈥攕treamlining its menu, enhancing the in-store experience, leaning into premiumization鈥攔un counter to consumers鈥� current desire for variety, convenience, and value. That has created an opening for chains like Dutch Bros (and now Luckin and Cotti), which are better positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the coffee space and can undercut Starbucks on price.