蘑菇AV

Amid dizzying policy unpredictability and a grab bag of unpleasant economic possibilities, precise ad spend forecasting is challenging. A scenarios-based approach can help clarify potential outcomes.

This report compares our 2025 US ad spending and time spent with media forecasts. It identifies incongruities between how marketers are spending ad dollars and where consumers are spending their time.

The triopoly looks stronger, but it's digital that's getting bigger. Amazon, Google, and Meta now command 58.8% of total US ad dollars, up from 47.1% in 2020. But that's not an indication that the triopoly's control of the digital ad market is growing.

US ad spend with financial media will reach over $600 millions this year, according to 蘑菇AV forecasts, but still represent a small fraction of the commerce media landscape. "This is a really nascent space. There aren't many players that make up this cohort of financial media networks (FMNs), and they represent a really diverse array of types of financial companies," said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers."

The news: Temu鈥檚 foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it鈥檚 possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors鈥攁nd the harder it will be to regain market share.

Tariffs drive ad pullbacks: Temu and Shein reduce US ad spending ahead of policy shift, signaling fallout across ecommerce and social platforms.

After an unexpectedly solid 2023, the good times will continue for ad spending in most US industry verticals in 2024. Telecom will lead in growth, and numerous categories will outpace their 2023 increases. A few unusual results are on tap as well.

Retail has come off its lengthy run of outperforming overall US ad spending growth. While growth will dip below the average for all industries in 2024, the pace is set to pick up again in 2025 and 2026.

US ad spending faces a slowdown: Economic uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation are prompting advertisers to cut budgets, with 2025 ad growth forecasts declining.

This report compares our 2024 US ad spending and time spent with media forecasts. It identifies incongruities between how marketers are spending ad dollars and where consumers are spending their time.

Tariffs threaten to reduce US digital ad spending growth this year. This series explains the effects tariffs will have on ad spending in search, social, CTV, and retail media鈥攁nd which parts of each might fare best and worst.

Search ad spending will not be immune to the economic upheaval caused by the US tariff regime. But it will be less susceptible than other spending areas.

This is the Q1 2025 installment of our quarterly 鈥淎d Spending Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps ad buyers and sellers calibrate their spending and revenue mix against the market.鈥�

This is the Q1 2025 installment of our quarterly 鈥淎d Spending Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps ad buyers and sellers calibrate their spending and revenue mix against the market.鈥�

This is the Q1 2025 installment of our quarterly 鈥淎d Spending Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps ad buyers and sellers calibrate their spending and revenue mix against the market.鈥�

US digital ad spending growth will dip below 10% YoY in 2025, but retail media, social networks, and CTV will still perform above the overall average.

The news: Fanatics launched Fanatics Advertising, a division that will oversee the company鈥檚 ad and brand partnership strategy across its commerce, collectibles, gaming, and events businesses. Our take: Fanatics is taking its swing at the fast-growing commerce media space. Commerce media represented 18.0% of US digital ad spending last year, and we expect its share to keep climbing鈥攈itting nearly $1 of every $5 spent on digital ads (19.7%) this year and close to $1 in $4 (24.8%) by 2029, the end of our forecast period. Sitting at the crossroads of sports fandom鈥攎erchandise, collectibles, betting, and live events鈥擣anatics has a brand position few, if any, rivals can match. If it executes well, Fanatics Advertising could be a home run by turning its unmatched access to fans into an equally powerful ad play.

Shein and Temu pull back US digital ad spending, shift to Europe: The change shows how geopolitical tensions trickle down to business operations.