蘑菇AV

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

US retail and ecommerce sales will maintain stable growth over the next five years, with pockets of opportunity emerging from new digital consumers and mobile-first online shopping trends.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

Amazon's sales share will continue to grow in key product categories. But food and beverage remains a rare weak spot for the ecommerce giant.

Essential goods categories will run out of steam, leading to a slowdown in ecommerce growth.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

B2B ecommerce growth is outpacing B2B product and electronic sales growth. And ecommerce site sales are taking an increasing share of the market. Macroeconomic conditions, buyers鈥� preferences, and AI use are fueling increased digital transactions, particularly through third-party marketplaces.

The insight: Amazon is trying to make a bigger name for itself in the luxury sphere鈥攁 strategy that could help soften the blow from tariffs. Our take: That designer brands and retailers are eager to partner with Amazon despite its mixed track record in luxury shows the state of the industry, which is under serious pressure as economic uncertainty saps even affluent consumers鈥� desire to shop. Amazon鈥檚 extensive reach鈥攖hree-quarters of US households are Prime users, per our forecast鈥攁nd ability to drive spending even in times of volatility are making it an increasingly valuable partner for any brand looking to drive sales in an unsettled environment.

Growth rates will decline, but digital grocery will remain a key focus for retailers looking to drive incremental sales dollars in ecommerce.

The situation: With President Trump鈥檚 so-called 鈥渞eciprocal鈥� tariff deadline鈥攑ushed from July 9 to August 1鈥攆ast approaching, the White House has announced the outlines of trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. Our take: This new tariff regime is already dragging on growth鈥攁nd the effects are likely to deepen. Before the Trump administration rolled out its trade agenda, we expected US retail sales this year to rise 2.9% YoY, a slight increase from the 2.8% growth last year. But given the current tariff regime, we now expect sales to increase just 1.5%, which would be a real sales decrease, since that鈥檚 below the rate of inflation. We鈥檙e not alone. Goldman Sachs sees a clear deceleration ahead, citing tariffs as a likely driver of both rising prices and weakened consumer spending. And while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal trimmed the odds of a recession to 33%鈥攄own from 45% in April鈥攊t remains well above the 22% forecast in January. In this new normal, retailers and manufacturers should prepare for sustained margin pressure, increasingly cautious consumers, and slower growth.

US Ecommerce Forecast 2025 (蘑菇AV subscription required). Impact of Tariffs on Digital Advertising (蘑菇AV subscription required). Note: Respondents were asked, "Which of the following are you most likely to continue spending on, even when cutting back elsewhere?" This data is being featured as part of our special coverage on the impact of tariffs.

66% of U.S. adults have reduced nonessential shopping to manage expenses, according to March 2025 data from CivicScience.

The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That鈥檚 a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill鈥� will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce鈥攁nd place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.

Returns will pass the trillion dollar mark this year, with US ecommerce returns growth outpacing sales growth, per our forecast. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for retailers and brands to look at their returns, because those ultimately eat into their margins,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves.

US retail and ecommerce sales are getting back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories, but consumer spending may be stunted amid ongoing economic uncertainty.