蘑菇AV

US retail and ecommerce sales will maintain stable growth over the next five years, with pockets of opportunity emerging from new digital consumers and mobile-first online shopping trends.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

Amazon's sales share will continue to grow in key product categories. But food and beverage remains a rare weak spot for the ecommerce giant.

Essential goods categories will run out of steam, leading to a slowdown in ecommerce growth.

B2B ecommerce growth is outpacing B2B product and electronic sales growth. And ecommerce site sales are taking an increasing share of the market. Macroeconomic conditions, buyers鈥� preferences, and AI use are fueling increased digital transactions, particularly through third-party marketplaces.

Growth rates will decline, but digital grocery will remain a key focus for retailers looking to drive incremental sales dollars in ecommerce.

Returns will pass the trillion dollar mark this year, with US ecommerce returns growth outpacing sales growth, per our forecast. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for retailers and brands to look at their returns, because those ultimately eat into their margins,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves.

Ecommerce will account for nearly a quarter (24.5%) of US beauty retail sales by 2028, according to our October 2024 forecast.

Grocery is the second-largest ecommerce category we track, garnering $220.48 billion in 2025, according to our 鈥淯厂 Digital Grocery Forecast 2025鈥� report. Walmart is the top digital grocery retailer, capturing 31.6% of US grocery ecommerce sales in 2025, followed by Amazon (22.6%) and Kroger (8.6%).

There will be over 100 million social buyers in the US in 2024, according to our forecast. TikTok Shop, which launched in the US in September 2023, will be the single largest contributor to buyer and sales growth this year.

Although the Cyber Five will hit record ecommerce sales in the US this year at $41.43 billion, the retail event鈥檚 share of total retail ecommerce holiday season sales will continue to shrink, per our July 2024 forecast.

US retail and ecommerce sales are getting back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories, but consumer spending may be stunted amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

60% of US retail professionals say charging customers for returns has resulted in an increase of adoption in their free return methods, while 54% say it has cut down on return rates, according to a September 2024 survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns.