蘑菇AV

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

US retail and ecommerce sales will maintain stable growth over the next five years, with pockets of opportunity emerging from new digital consumers and mobile-first online shopping trends.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

Amazon's sales share will continue to grow in key product categories. But food and beverage remains a rare weak spot for the ecommerce giant.

Essential goods categories will run out of steam, leading to a slowdown in ecommerce growth.

B2B ecommerce growth is outpacing B2B product and electronic sales growth. And ecommerce site sales are taking an increasing share of the market. Macroeconomic conditions, buyers鈥� preferences, and AI use are fueling increased digital transactions, particularly through third-party marketplaces.

Growth rates will decline, but digital grocery will remain a key focus for retailers looking to drive incremental sales dollars in ecommerce.

The insight: Amazon is trying to make a bigger name for itself in the luxury sphere鈥攁 strategy that could help soften the blow from tariffs. Our take: That designer brands and retailers are eager to partner with Amazon despite its mixed track record in luxury shows the state of the industry, which is under serious pressure as economic uncertainty saps even affluent consumers鈥� desire to shop. Amazon鈥檚 extensive reach鈥攖hree-quarters of US households are Prime users, per our forecast鈥攁nd ability to drive spending even in times of volatility are making it an increasingly valuable partner for any brand looking to drive sales in an unsettled environment.

Returns will pass the trillion dollar mark this year, with US ecommerce returns growth outpacing sales growth, per our forecast. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for retailers and brands to look at their returns, because those ultimately eat into their margins,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves.

Ecommerce will account for nearly a quarter (24.5%) of US beauty retail sales by 2028, according to our October 2024 forecast.

Grocery is the second-largest ecommerce category we track, garnering $220.48 billion in 2025, according to our 鈥淯厂 Digital Grocery Forecast 2025鈥� report. Walmart is the top digital grocery retailer, capturing 31.6% of US grocery ecommerce sales in 2025, followed by Amazon (22.6%) and Kroger (8.6%).

US retail and ecommerce sales are getting back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories, but consumer spending may be stunted amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

The majority (80.9%) of worldwide retail media ad spend will take place in China and the US this year, according to a March 2025 蘑菇AV forecast.

New tariffs will create ripple effects across retail鈥攁nd returns will be no exception. With US retail returns predicted to exceed $1 trillion this year, according to a December 2024 蘑菇AV forecast, the pressure is on retailers to adapt.

US retail media ad spending will increase 88.5% from 2024 to 2028, reaching $97.9 billion, according to a November 2024 蘑菇AV forecast.