蘑菇AV

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands gauge their sales mix against the market.鈥�

The trend: A growing parade of retailers are front-loading July promotions to capture sales before the start of Amazon鈥檚 Prime Day event, which will run from July 8 at 12:01am PDT through July 11. Our take: There's a good reason that more retailers are joining Walmart and Target in attempting to get a head start on Prime Day. Amazon typically garners an outsized share of sales during its marquee event; we expect Amazon will account for 75% of US ecommerce sales during Prime Day this year.

The milestone: Amazon recently deployed its 1 millionth robot in its fulfillment centers鈥攁 figure approaching the number of human workers at those facilities. Our take: Automation is a central element within Amazon鈥檚 relentless push to narrow the gap between click and doorstep. Fast delivery isn鈥檛 just about convenience; it transforms how consumers shop. The faster Amazon gets everyday essentials like toothpaste into customers鈥� hands鈥攅specially with free delivery for Prime members鈥攖he harder it becomes for other retailers to compete. That gives Amazon a durable edge as it looks to expand its share of US ecommerce sales.

The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That鈥檚 a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill鈥� will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce鈥攁nd place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.

Amazon and Walmart dominate the landscape, but the other half of US ecommerce sales is still up for grabs.

US ecommerce sales will be hit hard by tariffs: Many online platforms鈥� advantages could disappear as prices rise, inventory runs dry, and delivery times slow.

This is the first installment of our 鈥淩etail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers calibrate their sales mix against the market.

As the share of US ecommerce sales on marketplaces continues to expand, our latest survey examines consumer buying habits and expectations across leading platforms.

Cyber Monday will generate $13.93 billion in US ecommerce sales this year, the highest of any Cyber Five day, according to a July 2024 蘑菇AV forecast.

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our 鈥淩etail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands gauge their sales mix against the market.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.