蘑菇AV

YouTube's CTV audience is now second only to Netflix鈥檚 total audience in the US, per our estimates. To stave off competition, streamers like Netflix and Amazon are incorporating more creator content into their libraries. Marketing budget is also moving to creators. In 2025, we expect US social video ad spending, excluding YouTube, to surpass linear TV ad spending for the first time.

Formula 1鈥檚 US popularity has grown in recent years thanks to the Netflix series 鈥淒rive to Survive鈥� and several US-based races, but it is likely to command a much lower price than the NHL. Our take: The NHL represents an opportunity for a streaming service to gain subscribers, viewers, and advertising dollars in the extremely competitive North American market.

Gen Zers鈥� Netflix use is catching up to TikTok use. This year, 67.9% of US Gen Zers will use Netflix, and 71.2% will use TikTok, according to our forecast. The streaming service is expected to bypass the video-centric social media giant by 2026. Nonetheless, Netflix use is influenced by social media: 45% of Gen Zers choose what to watch based on trending content, according to Tubi.

TV networks rely on Netflix for distribution: A deal between Netflix and French broadcaster TF1 is a clear sign of how video power dynamics have shifted.

A temporary 90-day US-China tariff pause offers some relief, yet many advertisers are already pulling back spend or reallocating budgets in anticipation of higher costs and geopolitical uncertainty. (For a more exhaustive analysis of companies from Google to Netflix to Meta and beyond, read our new Digital Advertising Earnings Q1 2025 report.).

Digital will make up 63.7% of the 12 hours and 37 minutes (12:37) per day US adults spend with total media in 2024, per our forecast.

Streaming is dominating US viewership, accounting for 43.8% of total viewing time, per Nielsen, and most of the time spent streaming is coming from YouTube and Netflix. Free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) channels are showing promise, with broadcasting media company MediaCo noting 18% YoY growth in its FAST viewer base. AI-powered tools are transforming marketing.

The broader CTV market is undergoing rapid transformation, with US CTV ad spend projected to surpass traditional TV in 2028, reaching $46.89 billion. By 2026, nine streaming platforms鈥攊ncluding Roku, Netflix, and Amazon鈥攁re expected to have $1 billion+ CTV ad businesses, intensifying the need for innovation.

YouTube has more connected TV (CTV) viewers than the total viewers of any other platform except Netflix, according to our October 2024 forecast. Excluding YouTube, 蘑菇AV forecasts US social video ad spending will surpass linear TV ad spending for the first time. 鈥淧eople like Colin and Samir are getting better viewership on CTV for longer than most network sitcoms,鈥� said Gordon.

Although inflation, a strong job market, and a positive economic outlook are at play, three dominant ad channels are contributing to upward US ad spend. October saw a 3.2% YoY growth for the US ad market, marking the fourth consecutive month of spending increases, according to the Standard Media Index ad market tracker.

The loss of TikTok in the US would cause a ripple effect across the media, marketing, and commerce landscape. Meta and YouTube stand to gain the most, but there is a long list of other winners鈥攁nd losers.

That responsiveness extends to YouTube (29%) and streaming video (27%), reinforcing why immersive, platform-native ad formats like those ViX is developing could be especially impactful. 73% of Hispanic adults use Netflix, compared with 59% of the general population.

Netflix may have had an optimistic start to the year, but it still faces a series of threats and opportunities abroad if it wants to maintain its worldwide dominance. Here鈥檚 an overview of what the company can expect to face.

US Census Bureau.

By 2026, 10.2 million US children will own a smartphone, per our forecast. YouTube, YouTube, and more YouTube: That鈥檚 where kids are spending their smartphone time. More kids watch YouTube than TikTok, Disney+, and even Netflix. Neary 57% of US kids under 12 use YouTube, meaning YouTube has a higher penetration among the youngest users than among those ages 65 and older, according to our data.

Though growth rates are slowing, the company's US podcast ad revenues are expected to rise from $204.6 million in 2023 to $426.5 million in 2027. Spotify and YouTube are racing to dominate video podcasting, each rolling out new tools to attract users and advertisers. Netflix is moving into video podcasts to rival YouTube, offering long-form creators more exposure and income potential.

In the US, 77% of TV-owning households had a smart TV as of Q1 2023, according to Hub Research. Connected TVs, which include smart TVs, streaming sticks, and other devices, will be used in 115.1 million households next year, more than double the number of traditional pay TV households, according to our forecast.

We forecast that 93.5% of US teens will use YouTube at least once monthly in 2025, the highest penetration since we began tracking usage in 2017. Seventy-three percent of US teens use YouTube once per day, above younger competitor TikTok鈥檚 53%, per Pew Research Center.

蘑菇AV half (47.6%) of people in the US will be live sports viewers in 2025, per our forecast. As streamers show more live sports, viewers need to have access to certain platforms to watch their teams. Netflix may get a subscription boost when Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, and Beyonc茅 fans alike want to tune into its Christmas Day games.

Comcast to distribute Max in the UK in exchange for US bundle rights: The deal shows competitors willing to team up in a saturated market.

厂辫辞迟颈蹿测鈥檚 US ad revenues grew by 15.1% this year to pass the $1 billion mark, according to our forecast. And Spotify has about twice as many US listeners (100.8 million) as the next-most used platform, Amazon Music (51.9 million). But Spotify hasn鈥檛 had the standout year it would need for us to consider it the Netflix of audio. Outcome: Incorrect. Prediction: The privacy panic will take over.

This year, 27.3% of US podcast listeners will listen on Spotify, and that figure will increase to 28.9% next year. Meanwhile, 21.9% of podcast listeners will consume their content on Apple Podcasts in 2023, a number that will drop to 21.1% in 2024. 3. Ad-supported listening grows at Spotify. 厂辫辞迟颈蹿测鈥檚 podcast and audiobook infrastructure led us to predict it will someday be the Netflix of audio.