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YouTube overhauls TV app to compete with streamers: New features like episodes, previews, and subscription tools aim to boost creator monetization and rival platforms like Netflix and Disney+.

Yet Meta will claim roughly 75% of social ad dollars and nearly 20% of total US digital ad spending. YouTube鈥檚 time spent figures also round to about 0:34 per day. But despite claiming 7.5% of adults鈥� digital media time, YouTube will only draw 5.8% (gross) of all digital ad spending. Among ad platforms that focus on keeping users engaged, only Meta overindexes against time spent.

Why we care: We predict US digital ad spending will reach $278.59 billion this year, $5 billion lower than our original projections. 鈥淭his is going to be a year of switching for consumers,鈥� said Joe Elmquist, strategist, marketplace programmatic at Tinuiti. 鈥淗ow are you going to build your brand with consumers who are already product loyal?鈥�. Watch the full webinar.

Consumers may be concerned about the economy, but the outlook is good for ad spend in the final months of 2024. The share of advertisers concerned about a slowing US economy dropped 11 percentage points (from 49% to 38%) between November 2023 and August 2024, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). Retail media鈥檚 popularity, an influx of value-based messaging, high political ad spend, and connected TV (CTV) monetization will boost the ad industry the rest of 2024.

While the fine is overturned, the EU鈥檚 scrutiny of Google鈥檚 practices remains, with further legal battles ahead that could reshape its ad business.

Digital ad spend will take a hit. We鈥檙e definitely not in the digital ad-pocalypse, but privacy changes, macroeconomic headwinds, and ad spend normalization led us to downgrade our US digital ad spend forecast by $5 billion for 2023. While the overall market slows, not all categories will take the same hit.

Next year, US search ad spend will reach $127.84 billion, growing 12.4% YoY, per our forecast. Search will account for 41.6% of overall US digital ad spending in 2024. The cost of getting retail media search right: The increase of retail media ad inventory shouldn鈥檛 clutter or detract from the shopping experience.

Untapped potential: US digital ad spending on email will total $670 million this year, just 0.2% of total digital ad spending. And many marketers are fine with that. 鈥淓mail is the only channel that you can put very little effort into and still make money,鈥� he said.

Still, CTV ad spend will cross the $30 billion mark next year and approach 10% of US digital ad spend. 2. CTV鈥檚 share of the video market is growing. Key stat: CTV will account for one-third of combined US linear and CTV ad spend this year, up from under one-tenth in 2019, per our March 2024 forecast. What it means: All growth in the converged TV market will come from CTV starting next year.

Sophisticated shoppers have long been the lifeblood of the affiliate marketing industry. But as affiliate marketing has grown more visible, many of those shoppers have gotten choosier about the kinds of deals they take, squeezing the margins of both advertisers and publishers.

Despite its popularity, email marketing will account for just 0.2% of US digital ad spend this year, for a total of $667.3 million, according to our forecast. The low spend figure once again points to how relatively inexpensive email marketing is.

US omnichannel retail media ad spend will more than double between this year and the end of our forecast period in 2027, reaching a total of $107.00 billion. In 2027, retail media will account for over a quarter (26.9%) of US digital ad spend, per our forecast. To get in on that growth, you have to avoid mistakes that could hurt your retail media network (RMN) before it matures.

Tubi鈥檚 total digital ad revenues make up just 0.3% of total US digital ad spend, according to our forecast. At $830 million in spend, the platform will pull in less than a third of ad-supported video rival Roku鈥檚 $2.56 billion this year. 鈥淲e're not going to advertise the way normal streaming services do, which is titles and all these prestige brands that they have,鈥� said Hahn.

US Social Network Forecasts 2024 (Subscription required).

Our complete estimates for US TV ad spending and US CTV ad spending can be accessed via our website鈥檚 interactive forecast module. Despite a reduction in ad inventory, the market for TV and CTV ad spending will grow by billions. Spending on TV ads overall will resume growing in 2024.

Our forecast backs this up, with a projection of 27.2% growth as CTV takes over a greater share of US digital ad spend. In contrast, while US social network ad spend will be up 8.8% from last year, it鈥檚 losing share to other digital ad channels. Just because other marketers are focusing on a certain area doesn鈥檛 mean that channel is right for everyone.

Looking ahead: A highly competitive holiday season is shaping up, with US retail sales projected to increase by 4.8% YoY, per our forecast; ecommerce is expected to grow nearly twice as fast (9.5%). Nearly 4 in 10 respondents anticipate increasing their ad spend by 11% to 25% in Q4, with an additional 11% expecting to boost their budgets by more than 25%.

TikTok will generate more US digital ad revenues than Twitter, Snapchat, and Reddit combined in 2023, per our estimates. And it will account for 2.5% of all US digital ad spending. In 2019, TikTok brought in less than $200 million in US ad revenues. Though its US ad revenues will grow only 36.0% in 2023, that鈥檚 faster than what we expect from any of its social competitors.

The letter, representing 39 states and American Samoa, the District of Columbia, and the US Virgin Islands, cites research linking social media use to anxiety, depression, and suicidal ideation in young people, per The Verge.

Search advertising will be a $127.84 billion industry in the US this year, according to our October 2023 forecast. Nearly half (49.0%) of that will go to Google. For context, search ad spend will make up 41.7% of US digital ad spend in 2024. All this begs the question posed by Pranav Dixit, 鈥淲ho makes money when AI reads the internet for 耻蝉?鈥� It鈥檚 not publishers, programmatic advertisers, or users.

Total media ad spend in the US will reach $389.49 billion this year, according to our forecast. Over three-quarters (77.7%) of that will go toward digital channels like mobile, desktop/laptop, and connected TV (CTV).

Programmatic advertising digital display ad spend will make up 90% of digital display ad spend in the US this year, and that share is growing, according to our forecast. Most of the $132.96 billion in spend will go to video, but non-video ads still make up a large portion. Here are five charts summarizing where programmatic ad spend is headed and the identity challenges it faces right now.