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Digital ad spend is growing and going increasingly toward programmatic formats. Search ad spend is on the rise as well, as retail media growth remains healthy. And social media is in better shape than previously projected. Here are five recent charts forecasting the future of ad spend.

US Retail Industry Ad Spending 2024 (蘑菇AV subscription required). Methodology: Data is from a February 2025 Civicscience survey. 4,000+ US adults ages 18+ were surveyed online during February 3-4, 2025. The survey was weighted by the U.S. Census.

Even as some signs foretell a rebounding economy, total US ad spend is still down. Advertisers will keep investing in performance-oriented channels, which is good news for retail media search. At some point, retail media search ad spend will hit a ceiling. Amazon shoppers say the feed has already become cluttered with sponsored results.

Instacart is the latest retail brand attracted to the Super Bowl: Even at $7 million a pop, brands find the spots are worthwhile buys.

However, the two metrics usually move in tandem, with ecommerce booms heralding ad spending booms, and ecommerce deceleration heralding ad spending deceleration. Worldwide ecommerce sales growth began a two-year decline in 2021 that the global ad industry quickly emulated.

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Retail media is the fastest-growing ad channel we track in the US, growing by 26.0% this year. Its share of total US media spend will reach 14.1% this year, and come 2028, nearly 1 in 5 ad dollars spent in the US will go to retail media. But the channel has the potential to grow even more. Here are four key factors that present challenges to retail media growth right now.

Retailers are reimagining shopper journeys with AI-assisted search. As platforms refine their new tools and features, consumer behavior and retail search ad formats will evolve. Obstacles to measuring incrementality remain.

Programmatic advertising will account for 91.3% of US digital display ad spend this year, or a total of $157.35 billion, per our December 2023 forecast. Last week, advertisers at Programmatic I/O discussed where those ad dollars are headed and how programmatic advertising is changing. From ad spend waste to the expansion of retail media, here are three big trends discussed at the event.

US retail media ad spend will reach $59.61 billion this year, according to our October 2023 forecast. 18.5% of retail media network ad spend is coming from off-site advertising, and that share is growing, per our forecast. With retail media gaining so much of the digital ad landscape, it鈥檚 no surprise ad giants like Google and Microsoft are building out their own retail media tools. Use this chart:.

Generative AI tools are transforming retail media by personalizing shopper experiences, with retailers like Instacart introducing aisle-aware ads and location-based coupons. In-store retail media is growing rapidly, with players like CVS and 7-Eleven using digital screens and audio ads near points of purchase, despite infrastructure challenges.

US financial media network ad spend will soar to $1.22 billion in 2026, nearly doubling from $640 million in 2025鈥攁 66.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per our May 2025 forecast.

Though we鈥檝e downgraded our retail media forecast, we anticipate the channel will experience double-digit growth through 2027. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 an exaggeration to say that retail media is one of the most important and potentially most transformative ad spending channels in media right now,鈥� said our analyst Max Willens.

But for now, YouTube leads competitors in both time spent and ad spend. For 2024: Embrace the pivot to digital. It鈥檚 where viewers are spending an increasing amount of time and where ad formats tend to be more shoppable. 3. Cookies are going away, for real. Google confirmed last month that it will begin deprecating third-party cookies in 2024.

The economy鈥檚 bumpy ride, worse-than-expected retail ecommerce growth, and advertiser skittishness in H1 2023 did not slow retail media鈥檚 growth. We now expect US retail media ad spending to be nearly a billion dollars greater in 2023 and nearly $4 billion higher in 2024 than previously estimated (see leading chart). Expect even stronger near-term growth.

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Ad spend is growing fastest in beauty and personal care. US retail media ad spend on beauty and personal care grew 38.1% YoY in Q2 2024, faster than any other category. However, that percentage is down from 48.1% YoY growth in Q1, per Skai. Sports and fitness saw the largest decrease in retail media ad spend, down 10.2% YoY in Q2.

As linear TV ad spending continues to dwindle, connected TV (CTV) is more than filling the void. The net result is healthy growth when we look at the combined TV and CTV market. Key Question: How are TV and CTV ad spending performing, and what do those trends mean for ad buyers and sellers? Key Stat: Combined spending on TV and CTV will grow by over $12 billion between 2023 and 2027.

Connected TV (CTV) is now an integral part of retail media. Media networks can offer rich third-party data, while CTV platforms have advanced targeting capabilities and an engaged audience. But just how big is the opportunity?

Retail digital US ad spend will grow by 12.2% this year, second only to travel at 14.3%, per our forecast. Retail digital ad spend growth will pick up speed next year, hitting 14.2%. Use this chart:. Understand the mix of industries buying ads. Recognize how competitive retail advertising can be. More like this:.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss why now might be the exact right time for Meta to bring back live shopping, who would be the most likely candidate to buy Party City, and why Disney thinks that now is the right time to pull the trigger on a big change. Tune in to the discussion with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Vice President and Principal Analyst Jasmine Enberg, and Vice Presidents of Content Suzy Davidkhanian and Paul Verna.

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CTV will rank No. 2 for ad spending growth. Retail media is the only breakout we forecast that we expect to outperform CTV in ad spending growth. CTV will outperform other digital advertising categories (e.g., formats, devices, channels). Retail media and CTV are increasingly overlapping. CTV鈥檚 ad spending growth is, in part, a result of retail media鈥檚 strength.

We forecast retail media network off-site ad spend in the US will grow 61.5% this year, reaching $10.64 billion. That figure will grow another 27.1% next year, hitting $13.52 billion, as brands and retailers look to meet consumers wherever they are.