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From 2024 to 2026, FMN ad spend will grow at a breakneck 106.3% compound annual growth rate, per our forecast. While that will account for only 0.4% of US digital ad spending in 2026, this growth reflects FIs鈥� eagerness to monetize their first-party data. Click here to view our full forecast for US FMN ad spending. Ad revenues are looking increasingly attractive for FIs:.

By 2028, overall off-site ad spending will have increased by more than 5 points of share in retail media and will represent more than $25 billion in ad spending. Two-thirds (68%) of advertisers working with RMNs are already leveraging retail media.

Under the moderate tariff scenario, total ad spending would reach approximately $407 billion, with only the heavy scenario triggering an actual year-over-year decline in total ad spending. "Even in a heavy tariff scenario, top-line digital ad spending, looking at it from a year-over-year growth standpoint, would still grow 4.5% year-over-year," said our analyst Oscar Orozco. Digital channel divide.

The big picture: The digital advertising industry faces a tough 2025, with slowing growth across digital media consumption, ecommerce, and ad spending compared to pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.

Programmatic digital display is no exception to the ad spending downturn that has sent ripples through our forecast. As marketers scrutinize their investments, social networks are losing share of the programmatic pie while CTV and retail media drive growth.

From 2024 to 2026, FMN ad spend will grow at a breakneck compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.3%, per our forecast. While that will account for only 0.4% of total 2026 US digital ad spending, the growth rate reflects FIs鈥� eagerness to secure their share of ad dollars by monetizing their first-party data. Ad revenues are looking increasingly attractive for FIs:.

CTV will rank No. 2 for ad spending growth. Retail media is the only breakout we forecast that we expect to outperform CTV in ad spending growth. CTV will outperform other digital advertising categories (e.g., formats, devices, channels). Retail media and CTV are increasingly overlapping. CTV鈥檚 ad spending growth is, in part, a result of retail media鈥檚 strength.

Nearly half (45%) of advertisers plan to reduce overall ad spend due to financial constraints from tariffs, according to February 2025 data from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). Nearly three-quarters of advertisers expect ad budgets to shrink less than 10%. However, 22% believe ad budgets could decline by 11% to 20%. This will affect how much ad spend flows into retail media.

Although still a small share of ad spend, in-store retail media is expanding rapidly. Retailers like CVS and 7-Eleven are using digital screens and audio ads to engage shoppers closer to the point of purchase.

Between the lines: As tariffs threaten ad budgets, it鈥檚 crucial for advertisers to prove the worth of their retail media campaigns. 94% of advertisers are concerned about the impact of tariffs on ad spending, according to a recent survey from the IAB.

Even if other markets can offer a reprieve from potential hits to US ad spending, it will likely take time for them to ramp up to comparable levels.

But diving into advertising can help the company diversify its revenues and give it a needed boost, We forecast FMN ad spending will jump 103.11% YoY in 2025, hitting about $710 million.

Mobile app install ad spending in the US is forecast to reach over $27 billion in 2025, up nearly 11% from last year, per our forecast. Mobile in-app ad spending is projected to grow even faster, rising 12.6% in 2025 to nearly $190 billion. By 2029, mobile will make up nearly 68% of total digital ad spending in the US, climbing from 66% this year.

Our take: The change is part of YouTube鈥檚 ongoing effort to make ads more palatable for viewers and creators it may have upset with previous updates, improving overall sentiment toward ads and, in turn, convincing more brands to invest ad dollars.

Click here to view our full forecasts for US programmatic direct nonsocial digital display ad spending and US real-time bidding (RTB) nonsocial ad spending. But PMPs have also gained share of programmatic budgets. In 2020, PMPs and the open exchange each accounted for about half of nonsocial RTB ad spending.

Ad Spending 2024 (蘑菇AV subscription required). Note: Data was provided to 蘑菇AV by iSpot.TV.