蘑菇AV

US TikTok Shop employees prepare for layoffs: Tariffs and de minimis changes have pushed the platform鈥檚 ambitious commerce goal further out of reach.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

Despite uncertainty related to the economy and tariffs, US social network ad spending is expected to grow. AI offerings, social commerce, and lower-funnel investments will drive outlays.

TikTok is driving social commerce sales and buyer growth: The platform鈥檚 popularity and influence with Gen Zers contributed to its 2024 successes. We look at how that could change in 2025.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

But social commerce sales will continue to grow in the double digits each of those years. Growth will be driven specifically by Amazon鈥檚 investments in shoppable media across social platforms. Click here to view the full forecast for US social commerce sales.

Social commerce is the fastest-growing US retail channel, and retailers will need to offer a seamless payment experience to maximize the opportunity. Understanding payment preferences will be key to ensuring conversion at checkout.

The news: Social media is no longer just a branding tool鈥攊t鈥檚 a commerce engine, particularly among Gen Z. Over half (56%) of US Gen Zers have made a purchase because of a social media influencer, per CivicScience鈥檚 2025 Gen Z Media Consumption report. That鈥檚 up from 41% in 2023. 52% of Gen Zers have made a purchase directly on a social media platform, compared with 32% of adults over 30. Our take: Gen Z鈥檚 buying behavior is embedded in social-first platforms, where influence equals transaction. Partnerships with nano-influencers, who often have extremely engaged audiences, can help boost reach. Brands should test direct in-platform checkout integration on social media to boost conversion and capitalize on growing ecommerce options on platforms like TikTok and Instagram.

Click here to view the full US Social Commerce survey crosstabs. Smartphone shopping is on the upswing. We estimate that over 78% of consumers will use a smartphone in 2025, and mobile will account for nearly half (46.1%) of ecommerce sales. That marks a steady shift toward smartphone-driven shopping. Click here to view our full forecast for US retail mcommerce sales.

The news: Consumers increasingly trust shopping suggestions from AI, even more than product suggestions from content creators, positioning the technology as a trusted and personalized guide rather than a back-end tool. 27% of US consumers trust AI shopping recommendations, per Walmart鈥檚 Retail Rewired Report, compared with 24% who trust suggestions from social media influencers. Our take: AI retail tools are most likely to succeed if they offer both speed and a sense of user control. Retailers should let users set spending caps and offer options to pause or customize recommendations to help AI agents feel more like a trusted assistant than a pushy salesperson.

The news: Influencer marketing spending is increasing steadily in the US and worldwide, representing a key area of growth as audiences turn to the creators they trust for purchase decisions. In a conversation with EMARKTER, Arthur Leopold, head of the creator content ad platform Agentio, discussed why audiences are turning to influencers, how technology is changing the game, and where influencer marketing is heading. Our take: Influencer marketing continues to be a core focus for advertisers in a consumer landscape dominated by social media鈥攂ut as more brands invest in influencers, advertisers need to keep key considerations in mind.

US brands will spend $13.7 billion on influencer marketing by 2027, up from $10.5 billion this year, according to a March 蘑菇AV forecast.

TikTok Shop has emerged for many brands as a pivotal marketplace for discovery and sales. Some 50% of US consumers take product recommendation suggestions from influencers on TikTok Shop, according to February 2024 data from PartnerCentric.

Only 8.3% of users who noticed shopping-related content changes said their TikTok usage decreased, the same report found, according to our April 2024 鈥淯厂 Social Commerce鈥� survey.

Half of social shoppers in our US Social Commerce survey reported purchasing a beauty product as a result of creator/influencer content. Amid an uncertain future in the US, TikTok Shop is emerging as a potent partner for beauty brands. In-app commerce is driving results for brands willing to put in the effort.