蘑菇AV

US TikTok Shop employees prepare for layoffs: Tariffs and de minimis changes have pushed the platform鈥檚 ambitious commerce goal further out of reach.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

TikTok is driving social commerce sales and buyer growth: The platform鈥檚 popularity and influence with Gen Zers contributed to its 2024 successes. We look at how that could change in 2025.

Despite uncertainty related to the economy and tariffs, US social network ad spending is expected to grow. AI offerings, social commerce, and lower-funnel investments will drive outlays.

With TikTok facing potential US ban uncertainties, the platform's successful shopping integration has created both challenges and opportunities in the social commerce landscape. "TikTok really showed how social commerce can work in a new way in the US," our analyst Sky Canaves said on a recent episode of 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail.鈥�

Social commerce is the fastest-growing US retail channel, and retailers will need to offer a seamless payment experience to maximize the opportunity. Understanding payment preferences will be key to ensuring conversion at checkout.

Click here to view the full US Social Commerce survey crosstabs. Smartphone shopping is on the upswing. We estimate that over 78% of consumers will use a smartphone in 2025, and mobile will account for nearly half (46.1%) of ecommerce sales. That marks a steady shift toward smartphone-driven shopping. Click here to view our full forecast for US retail mcommerce sales.

But social commerce sales will continue to grow in the double digits each of those years. Growth will be driven specifically by Amazon鈥檚 investments in shoppable media across social platforms. Click here to view the full forecast for US social commerce sales.

US social commerce sales will surpass $100 billion in 2026, 蘑菇AV forecasts, presenting a clear opportunity for affiliate partnerships in influencer marketing. 鈥淏rands can now say 鈥榃e put out this budget and we鈥檙e going to be getting this many clicks,鈥欌�� he said. 鈥淓specially in the current market with impending tariffs and downward pressure on brands, that鈥檚 becoming even more important.鈥�.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

We expect US brands to spend over $10 billion on sponsored social content in 2025, per our latest forecast. But many brands still approach those deals transactionally, rather than as a true partnership where creators also have a seat at the table. Creator content is the most effective at driving sales from social media, per our March 2024 鈥淯厂 Social Commerce鈥� survey.

In the last of five reports in our 鈥淧ayments Ecosystem鈥� collection, we look at what鈥檚 influencing retail sales growth across in-store, online, and social commerce channels鈥攁nd what it means for payment providers.

TikTok Shop has emerged for many brands as a pivotal marketplace for discovery and sales. Some 50% of US consumers take product recommendation suggestions from influencers on TikTok Shop, according to February 2024 data from PartnerCentric.

Half of social shoppers in our US Social Commerce survey reported purchasing a beauty product as a result of creator/influencer content. Amid an uncertain future in the US, TikTok Shop is emerging as a potent partner for beauty brands. In-app commerce is driving results for brands willing to put in the effort.

US brands will spend $13.7 billion on influencer marketing by 2027, up from $10.5 billion this year, according to a March 蘑菇AV forecast.

The news: Influencer marketing spending is increasing steadily in the US and worldwide, representing a key area of growth as audiences turn to the creators they trust for purchase decisions. In a conversation with EMARKTER, Arthur Leopold, head of the creator content ad platform Agentio, discussed why audiences are turning to influencers, how technology is changing the game, and where influencer marketing is heading. Our take: Influencer marketing continues to be a core focus for advertisers in a consumer landscape dominated by social media鈥攂ut as more brands invest in influencers, advertisers need to keep key considerations in mind.

While retail media networks (RMNs) sell brand safety and predictability to marketers, influencer marketing boasts direct access to loyal audiences. Pairing these two channels together, experts stress, can drive significant growth for brands. Nine in 10 US marketers plan to promote their creator partnerships via RMNs in 2025, according to an October 2024 LTK survey.