蘑菇AV

The news: US retail sales fell more than expected in May from April, the latest sign that tariff fears and economic volatility are affecting consumer spending. Our take: While May鈥檚 retail sales data largely show that consumers are hanging in, the situation remains unpredictable鈥攅specially given the fact that tariff-driven price hikes have yet to kick in for a multitude of everyday purchases, including groceries and apparel.

Digital ad giants beat Q1 expectations, but tariffs, regulation, and slowing growth signal choppy waters ahead. This report breaks down which platforms are thriving, which are stalling, and what鈥檚 next for search, social, streaming, and retail media.

This is the Q2 2025 installment of our "Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers and brands gauge their sales mix against the market.鈥�

The news: Activist investor Barington Capital is pushing for changes at Victoria鈥檚 Secret, just weeks after the retailer adopted a poison pill measure to thwart a potential takeover attempt by Australian investment firm BBRC International. Our take: The uncertain environment is proving to be too good an opportunity for activist investors to pass up. In Q1 alone, shareholders launched 40 campaigns in the US, accounting for more than half of global activity and a 43% increase YoY, according to a Barclays analysis.

Roughly 1 in 9 US adults are currently on GLP-1s, while another 8.3% are considering starting a treatment plan in the next 12 months. Those on the weight-loss drugs consistently choose smaller pack sizes more often than the average US consumer in every product category tracked by Big Chalk鈥攁lthough that trade-down behavior could also reflect budget constraints.

The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump鈥檚 latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties鈥攕hould they come to pass鈥攚ill push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The news: Circle K owner Alimentation Couche-Tard has dropped its bid to buy Japan鈥檚 Seven & i Holdings, casting doubt on whether the 7-Eleven operator鈥檚 planned US IPO will proceed, Bloomberg reported. Our take: As 7-Eleven continues efforts to strengthen its core business, the failed takeover bid offers lessons for retailers and brands. Decisions involving globally recognized brands should be strategic, not reactive. Retailers must maintain flexibility to revisit IPO or spin-off plans as business circumstances change.

66% of U.S. adults have reduced nonessential shopping to manage expenses, according to March 2025 data from CivicScience.

The results: Amazon鈥檚 first four-day Prime Day event helped push US ecommerce sales to $24.1 billion from July 8鈥�11鈥攁 30.3% YoY increase, according to Adobe Digital Insights. Our take: Prime Day has cemented its place as a mid-summer shopping tentpole鈥攁nd not just for Amazon. Other retailers, ranging from Dollar General to Walmart, leaned into the promotional window, turning July into a new retail battleground. Beyond sales, the event is a massive advertising opportunity. One of the under-the-radar reasons Amazon doubled the event鈥檚 length was to provide more ad inventory. Stretching Prime Day to four days gave brands more time to reach high-intent shoppers鈥攁nd Amazon more room to expand its already-massive high-margin retail media business.

While Target might be able to pick up some sales from Temu as the latter turns away from the US, it will have to contend with stiff competition from Amazon, whose Haul marketplace also relies on the direct-shipping model. Editor's note: This content is part of 蘑菇AV鈥檚 subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports.

The situation: Several recent macroeconomic indicators point to a tough and increasingly uncertain economic environment. Our take: Uncertainty has cast a long shadow over the retail industry all year鈥攁nd clearer skies aren鈥檛 on the horizon. Retailers trying to weather the economic storm must focus on delivering compelling value to cost-conscious consumers. That means leaning into what makes their brand stand out, whether it鈥檚 quality, service, loyalty perks, or meaningful innovation. With nearly a quarter of shoppers adjusting their budgets as they tighten their purse strings鈥攁nd retail sales expected to rise just 1.5% YoY this year鈥攄ifferentiation is more important than ever.

The news: Amazon has partnered with delivery firm Gopuff to bring ultra-fast delivery to several UK markets, including Birmingham, Cambridge, Leeds, London, and Manchester. Our take: Amazon鈥檚 focus is crystal clear: Get orders to shoppers鈥� doors as fast as possible. In the US, it has pushed next-day delivery as the new standard鈥攅ven as it rapidly expands same-day service. In some cases, delivery happens within hours (for example, a Prime Day order we placed at 6 am today arrived at our door by noon.) To extend that promise beyond urban hubs, Amazon is investing over $4 billion through 2026 to triple the size of its rural delivery network. By year-end, it expects to bring same- or next-day delivery to more than 4,000 smaller cities and rural communities. Speed isn鈥檛 just a perk. It is the key component within Amazon鈥檚 growth strategy. The faster the company delivers, the more frequently consumers turn to Amazon for their everyday needs鈥攁nd the harder it becomes for competitors to keep up.