The news: Mastercard and Visa reported strong revenue growth in their most recent quarters. Visa’s net revenues rose 14% YoY in its fiscal year Q3 (ended June 30, 2025). Mastercard’s net revenues for the period rose 17% YoY. Our take: Both Visa and Mastercard understand that they need to innovate to keep their infrastructure competitive in light of the explosion of alternative payment rails—most recently stablecoin initiatives, made possible by the recent passage of the Genius Act.
The news: PayPal posted net revenue growth of 5% YoY at $8.3 billion due to strong performances of Venmo, its debit card, and Braintree, per its earnings report. Our take: PayPal is leaning into its branded experience and tech innovations to power its way through 2025.
The news: JPMorgan Chase is reportedly in late-stage talks to take over the Apple Card portfolio from Goldman Sachs, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Apple needs a stable financial partner after a rough road with Goldman Sachs’ regulatory scrutiny and failed experiment with consumer banking.
Consumer goods giants Kraft Heinz and Unilever are moving to stimulate demand in a challenging sales climate by increasing marketing spending on their most popular products. Both companies are betting on marketing to spur demand and improve brand equity in a slower-growth climate. But the question is whether stepped-up marketing will be enough to overcome rising consumer caution, particularly in categories like snacks and personal care, where purchases are more discretionary in a tariff-driven environment. Increased investments in promotions could pressure margins in coming quarters.
The data: US consumer spending inched up just 1.4% YoY in Q2, per the US Commerce Department. While that’s up from the tepid 0.5% in Q1, it’s well below the 2.8% growth in spending in 2024, and the fifth-slowest rate since Q3 2021. Goods spending rose 2.2% YoY, up from 0.1% the prior quarter, while services spending increased 1.1% YoY, ahead of the 0.6% in Q1. Our take: Eliminating the de minimis exemption levels the playing field between international ecommerce sellers and domestic retailers—but could also drive up prices for consumers.
As tariffs push prices up, consumers are reevaluating their brand loyalties—and many are walking away for good. What once felt like long-term relationships are now being tested by sticker shock, with even high-income shoppers turning to discount retailers and finding satisfaction in switching.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the unofficial list of the most interesting retailers for the month of July. Each month, our analysts Arielle Feger, Becky Schilling, and Vice President of Content and guest host, Suzy Davidkhanian (aka The Committee) put together a very unofficial list of the top eight retailers they're watching based on which are making the most interesting moves: Who's launching new initiatives? Which partnerships are moving the needle? Which standout marketing campaigns are being created? In this month's episode, Committee members Arielle Feger and Suzy Davidkhanian will defend their list against Senior Analyst Blake Droesch, and Principal Analyst Sky Canaves, who will dispute the power rankings by attempting to move retailers up, down, on, or off the list.
The challenges: UPS’ turnaround remains in the early innings due to structural inefficiencies, operational missteps, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds. Our take: UPS faces a difficult road ahead. The company is actively trying to streamline operations—planning to shutter up to 10% of its buildings, downsize its fleet, and reduce its US workforce to better align with leaner volumes. It’s also trimming low-margin business, notably cutting back on Amazon deliveries, which made up as much as 11.8% of its total revenues last year, in an effort to prioritize more profitable shipments. Still, with demand under pressure and cost headwinds mounting, stabilizing performance will be an uphill climb.
The news: Citigroup unveiled the Citi Strata Elite Card, its new premium card, per a press release. However, its rewards package lacks some of the flexibility that its peer card, Sapphire Reserve, holds in travel booking. While Reserve cardholders are more handsomely rewarded when booking through Chase travel platforms, members still receive points for booking travel directly—Strata Elite members lack that privilege.
This year, Amazon extended its July Prime Day event from two to four days, giving consumers more time to shop, brands more opportunities to advertise, and Amazon more time to generate sales.
Ocado Ads has partnered with data collaboration platform Permutive to make its first-party purchase data available to select UK publishers.
The contrast: At a time when many big box retailers are struggling, Tractor Supply Co. bucked the trend by delivering its strongest sales growth in two years—up 4.5% YoY to $4.44 billion—driven in part by solid momentum in big-ticket purchases. That performance stands in stark contrast to peers like Target and Home Depot, which have seen consumers pull back on discretionary and high-priced items. Our take: Tractor Supply’s formula is simple: high-quality experience + strong loyalty program + scale = growth. It delights shoppers, rewards them, and keeps expanding its footprint. That approach is helping it outrun the macro headwinds—and its largely US-sourced assortment leaves it better insulated from tariff and supply shocks than many other merchants.
The volatile macroeconomic environment is causing most shoppers to be more cautious with their spending, but it’s also driving a subset to spend more in search of comfort. Roughly 2 in 5 shoppers (38%) say that the current stress of economic uncertainty is making them spend more, according to a June LendingTree survey. Consumers may be choosing to spend more of their money on essentials, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be swayed to spend a little extra on the occasional indulgence—particularly if there’s an element of novelty, or if the purchase offers a sense of emotional comfort. While the Labubu craze is likely to fizzle out as quickly as it started, shoppers will remain as eager as ever to splurge on small luxuries that bring them satisfaction.
The news: Fiserv’s organic revenues grew 8% in Q2, per its earnings release. Our take: Fiserv’s Clover faces a stacked market with Shift4, Square, and Toast all offering competitive POS solutions for SMBs.
The news: New account openings were down 5% across Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and American Express during Q2 2025, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Issuers are going to chase opportunities to increase their payment volume, which explains targeted efforts to boost luxury travel and dining rewards. But looking long-term, banks need to think strategically about loosening their credit guidelines.
The news: Mastercard rolled out the AI Card Design Studio, which lets consumers and small businesses at participating banks personalize the front of their card, including with AI-generated images and designs. Our take: Mastercard offering a free, AI-based design feature lets businesses and customers maximize their design flexibility and the emotional impact of their products. (Remember customized checks with family photos?)
Deckers and Puma are proceeding with caution as tariffs complicate US operations and consumer sentiment. Of the two companies, Deckers is better equipped to manage the uncertain environment. It has considerably more pricing power than Puma, giving it more room to offset tariff costs. It also has significantly more runway to grow outside the US: International revenues surged 50% in Q1, while Puma is facing weakness in Asia and Europe in addition to North America.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss how retail media is impacting traditional search marketing, and how marketers can best leverage themselves on the wave of new retail media network platforms. Then, we break down how AI tools will affect the future of paid search advertising. Join our conversation with guest host and Director of Reports Editing, Rahul Chadha, Principal Analyst, Sarah Marzano, and Senior Analyst, Max Willens. Listen everywhere you find podcasts and watch on YouTube and Spotify.
41% of US buy now, pay later (BNPL) users have bought clothing, shoes, and outfit accessories with the services, according to April data from LendingTree and QuestionPro.
The news: PayPal launched PayPal World, a global platform linking major international payment systems and digital wallets. Our take: While PayPal’s starting list of key partnerships represents Latin America, India, and China, the payment provider could penetrate further into European markets by tying up with the European Payments Initiative and the Wero wallet—as well as with top US wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay or the nascent Paze.